How to Reduce Fluctuations in a Poker Game

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By avoiding marginal situations that require you to put additional money into the pot when it’s a close call, you can play with a smaller bankroll. If you’re a winning player, you’ll eventually win just as much money. It will just take more hours at the table to reach your goals.

There is no right or wrong way to put money at risk in a poker game. Some people are comfortable with a high level of risk and have the bankroll to accommodate the fluctuations, which inevitably accompany this kind of play.

Poker Winner BlogOthers aren’t so comfortable with high risk. In fact, you’ll frequently hear players bemoaning the fact that they are at a table full of live ones (weak opponents who call too frequently). “I wish there were two or three good players at the table,” they’re likely to say, “because they bring more stability to the game and my good hands tend to hold up.”

From a statistical perspective, this comment is a cry for a smaller standard deviation, along with an expression of those players‘ willingness to accept the slightly smaller win rate that goes along with it. Even without a knowledge of statistics, these players have learned that when you operate on the edge, the price you pay for an increased win rate is usually a significantly larger increase in the fluctuations you can expect.

As the win rate increases marginally, the standard deviation tends to fluctuate dramatically.

What does this mean to you as a player? Do you live on the edge, or seek whatever safety nets might be available? As long as you can afford to play the game you’re in, this becomes a matter of personal choice. Remember:

Only you can decide how much uncertainty you’re comfortable with.

  • If you elect to push every advantage, no matter how small, you can expect significantly higher fluctuations than you’d experience if you were willing to trade off that win rate for a bit more stability.
  • If you elect to maximize your win rate, then you’ll need a larger bankroll to play the game.

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